Protests in Kazakhstan
Nazarbayev the likeliest loser?
Cheering crowds pulling down statues; smoke billowing from government buildings; groups of angry young men confronting riot police; the sound of gunfire. The events of the past week in Kazakhstan, where protests at the removal of fuel subsidies escalated into mass revolt, have the look and feel of a people power revolution. Yet far from toppling the authoritarian government, they may have helped the president to consolidate power.
Out of nowhere
Nationwide protests in Kazakhstan have forced the resignation of the country’s government and led to the intervention of peacekeeping forces from a Russia-led military alliance. Civil unrest began last Sunday (2 January), when people in the western region of Mangystau protested the abolition of price controls for liquified petroleum gas (LPG), a popular automotive fuel among Kazakhstan’s working population. While the plan was for domestic LPG producers to step in and address shortages, the move backfired and prices nearly doubled overnight to KZT 120 (USD 0.30) per litre.
With momentum few anticipated, within 48 hours protests had spread across the country. In Almaty, Kazakhstan’s commercial capital, violent clashes erupted between protesters and security forces after groups of protesters set fire to the mayor’s office and temporarily seized control of the city’s airport. At least a dozen police and several dozen protesters have been killed, according to state media.
On Tuesday (4 January), Kazakhstan’s president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev dismissed the government and declared a nationwide state of emergency, formally requesting the intervention of members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), in an effort to restore order. The CSTO, a Eurasian intergovernmental military alliance, comprises Kazakhstan, Belarus, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Russia, the group’s de-facto leader. Russian and Belarusian troops reportedly crossed the border into Kazakhstan on Thursday morning.
Over the course of the week, initial grievances regarding the fuel price hike have expanded to the general economic situation in the country. Many protesters are laying the blame at the feet of Kazakhstan’s former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, who stepped down from the presidency in 2019 in favour of Tokayev, his hand-picked successor, but remained head of the powerful Security Council.
Tokayev & Putin the winners; Nazarbayev the loser?
Despite the volatile situation in the country, Tokayev appears to have taken advantage of the political turmoil and seized the opportunity to strengthen his position in power and crucially distance himself from Nazarbayev. On Wednesday, Tokayev replaced the former president as head of the Security Council, in a move that would have seemed improbable only a few weeks ago. Further evidence supporting Tokayev’s split from Nazarbayev was the Wednesday announcement that Karim Massimov, a powerful Nazarbayev loyalist, was relieved of his post as chairman of the National Security Committee (KNB). Massimov was replaced by Yermek Sagimbayev, the former head of Kazakhstan’s State Security Service, and staunch Tokayev loyalist.
Tokayev’s request for CSTO to intervene may have been a signal to wavering Nazarbayev supporters that he has the support of Russia, historically Kazakhstan’s key political and economic ally. It remains to be seen what the Kremlin expects in return for this assistance. One potential answer is Kazakhstan’s recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea as well as vocal support in its ongoing confrontation with the West.
If Tokayev successfully weathers the current civil unrest by deflecting popular anger onto Nazarbayev and his allies, Kazakhstan could see the emergence of a new political elite. In a country where the privileged have accumulated control over key sectors of the economy, a new class of oligarchs loyal to Tokayev could supplant Nazarbayev appointees at Kazakhstan’s largest enterprises. Their failure to go quietly could trigger reprisals in the form of arrests, lawsuits and even Red Notices against high profile Kazakh businesspeople with large Western footprints. Investors will consequently have to be extra vigilant to ensure their partners remain on the right side of Kazakhstan’s emerging political settlement.