Lebanon’s Parliamentary Elections

Governance reset or more political deadlock?

The Lebanese parliamentary elections took place on 15 May 2022 against the backdrop of one of the worst economic and social crises in over a century. 

And while traditional parties remained the dominant force with 115 seats, the vote heralded a seismic shift in political attitudes following mass anti-government protests starting in October 2019.  

Political mobilisation 

In these elections, the protestors’ demands for reform were translated from frustration on the streets to votes in ballot boxes. An unprecedented 13 seats out of 128 were won by reformist candidates (compared to just one seat in the 2018 elections). This destroyed the previously solid majority held by members and allies of Hezbollah – the designated Shia armed group and political party.  

Reformist candidates overcame entrenched sectarian loyalties, alleged fraud by traditional parties and an electoral system engineered in a way to deter political change, to make big gains. New faces include the environmental campaigner Najat Aoun Saliba and lawyer Firas Hamdan, who helped deny the Hezbollah majority by unseating one of its longstanding loyalists.  

These alternative candidates were able to metaphorically tear down the “wall of shame” – a term for the concrete wall installed by authorities in 2019 to prevent protesters from entering Al Nejmeh Square, home of parliament, around which demonstrations mainly took place in Beirut.  

Optimism tempered by caution 

The historic results make space for cautious optimism. However, the Lebanese political system remains deadlocked by sectarianism.  

While followers of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s party, the Future Movement, boycotted the elections, most seats still went to the same traditional parties that have been accused of bringing the country to its knees through political clientelism and corruption.  

One of the biggest winners was the Lebanese Forces (LF), a Christian party led by Samir Geagea, a former militia leader during the Lebanese Civil War. It is in the running to form a parliamentary majority. 

Hezbollah was shaken by the loss of seats by allies such as the Amal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement, previously the largest Christian party. Still, the idea that Hezbollah has been fatally weakened is a myth: its broad coalition remains the largest faction in parliament, with 58 seats (just seven short of a majority).  

The party remains one of the most powerful, organised and resourceful actors in the Arab region. With its proven ability to intimidate and coerce, and ideological guidance and financial backing from Iran, Hezbollah is there to stay, even with minority representation in the legislature. It is instructive that on the first day of its new session, parliament re-appointed the pro-Hezbollah speaker Nabih Berri to a seventh term (though with a much decreased margin). 

Now what? 

The road to reform is arduous. Berri’s election does not change the priority for the new legislature, which must be to form a cabinet and appoint a new prime minister. This would be key to unlocking an International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan that is seen as the country’s only way out of its economic crisis. In April 2022, the IMF threw Lebanon a lifeline by preliminarily agreeing to a USD 3 billion loan for the country (a fraction of the USD 10 billion that Lebanon originally requested). 

Its approval is subject to substantial reforms, such as an improved banking secrecy law, a capital control law and banking sector and debt restructuring. But these are unlikely to be enacted in the near future due to expected disagreements on government formation. And the October 2022 presidential elections risk creating another power vacuum. 

Without a quick government formation, any optimism from the 15 May elections will be short-lived. A political deadlock would only exacerbate Lebanon’s already worsening socioeconomic conditions.  

Yet the election results still have a chance to kick-start the country’s frail political machine. The reformist and progressive new faces in the Lebanese parliament  might just be the silver lining the country so desperately needs – if they manage to work together.